Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daily temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 4 July 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. Historical climatology for Guangzhou in July shows average daily highs consistently between 33°C and 35°C, with extremes rarely dipping below 30°C or exceeding 39°C[2][6]. Given that the crowd-implied probability for a specific threshold is currently 0% YES, this likely reflects a misalignment where traders are betting on a lower range than the historical norm, or the market is pricing in an unlikely cooling anomaly that contradicts the region’s typical summer intensity[1][4].

A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would script a bot to monitor real-time Wunderground feeds and cross-reference with China Meteorological Administration data for early deviations[2][3]. The primary catalysts to watch include the Guangzhou Meteorological Bureau’s daily forecast updates and any sudden shifts in monsoon patterns, which can rapidly alter temperature trajectories[5]. Recent reports confirm Guangzhou experienced its longest summer since 1961, suggesting a high probability of sustained heat rather than a cooling break[5]. Traders should also track the scheduled release of the monthly climate summary, as dependencies on regional humidity levels could push temperatures toward the upper 35°C limit[7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 4? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.