Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport’s highest temperature on 27 July will be set by the day’s observed maximum at the airport weather station, as published in Wunderground’s daily history feed. For a programmematic workflow, that means the cleanest check is to query the station history once the settlement window closes and map the recorded maximum into the market’s temperature bands rather than relying on intraday city forecasts.

The 0% crowd-implied price looks hard to justify against the current forecast backdrop. Long-range guidance for Guangzhou showed a hot, stable pattern around the weekend, with Saturday’s peak near 37°C and the broader run still clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, which is consistent with a high-temperature outcome rather than a sub-range miss. That kind of setup usually matters more than the exact hourly path when the resolution depends on a single station maximum.

For a trader using tooling, the practical catalysts are any shift in the local forecast for rain, cloud cover, or marine/monsoon-driven convection, because those are the main mechanisms that cap daytime highs. The cleanest dependency chain is forecast updates into the morning local-time heating cycle, then the eventual Wunderground history entry for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport; if a bot is watching this market, it should alert on forecast downgrades to the expected peak, not just headline temperature changes.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.