Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station will matter here because the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded there on 23 July, so the practical task is to map the eventual daily max into the listed Celsius bands. At 7:57 UTC, the crowd is still split across the top end of the range, with 36°C leading at 47% and 35°C at 28%, which is consistent with a hot midsummer setup rather than an extreme outlier[1]. Guangzhou’s July climate is typically hot and humid, with average daytime highs around 32°C and frequent rain, so the market is really about whether heating, cloud cover, and convection allow the airport station to touch the upper-mid 30s[4][5].

For a power-user, this is the kind of market that can be monitored programmatically by polling the settlement source and comparing any live airport observation against the current ladder of Celsius outcomes. The key dependency is the Wunderground daily history page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, because the resolution is based on the highest temperature for the day rather than a single fixed reading[1]. In practice, traders will watch for the day’s warmest window, local convective showers, and whether the official airport record briefly clips 36°C or higher before evening cooling sets in. Guangzhou is already reporting very hot conditions and elevated heat stress on current weather feeds, which supports the market’s focus on the top band rather than lower ranges[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.