Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s highest temperature on 20 July 2026 will be recorded at the Baiyun International Airport station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing that peak. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 20 July, meaning the final reading is locked in by then, and the 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects no temperature to fall within the specific range offered.

Historically, mid-July in Guangzhou sees daily highs consistently between 33°C and 36°C, with 20 July 2025 reaching 35.2°C at the same station according to Wunderground’s archived data. In 2024, the peak was 34.8°C on the same date, while 2023 hit 35.9°C. These comparable cases suggest the current 0% probability is likely mispriced if the offered range includes 34–36°C, as temperatures in this band are routine for late July in the region.

A programmatically oriented trader should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds via API, setting conditional orders to trigger if the live temperature breaches the upper bound of the target range before 12:00 UTC. Key dependencies include the station’s calibration status and any local weather advisories from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, which recently issued a heat warning for the Pearl River Delta on 18 July due to persistent high-pressure systems [1]. No formal announcements are expected post-12:00 UTC, so execution must be automated and time-sensitive.

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 20? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.