Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 10 July 2026, the market hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport, a critical data point for weather forecasting in southern China. Historically, July is Guangzhou’s hottest month, with daily highs averaging 33°C (91°F) and rarely dipping below 30°C (85°F)[1][2]. Extreme heat events are common; temperatures can reach 39°C (102°F) during the hottest spells in July[4]. Recent records show China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, with Guangzhou seeing the longest summer since that year[5][7]. Given this consistent thermal pattern, a 0% YES probability for a lower temperature range appears statistically anomalous unless the market defines an unusually high threshold.

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the station’s hourly peaks, integrating conditional orders to react to sudden spikes. Key catalysts include official meteorological announcements from the China Meteorological Administration and any scheduled heatwave advisories for Guangdong province. Recent news confirms Guangzhou’s summer days have reached record levels, reinforcing the likelihood of extreme highs[7]. Traders should also watch for dependencies like monsoon activity or urban heat island effects, which can amplify temperatures beyond seasonal averages. With settlement ending 2026-07-10T12:00:00Z, timely data ingestion is essential for accurate positioning. The market’s current pricing ignores the region’s documented heat trajectory, suggesting a potential misalignment between crowd sentiment and empirical weather data.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.