Highest temperature in Guangzhou on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou will experience peak summer heat on 15 August 2026, with the settlement hinging on the highest temperature recorded at Baiyun International Airport's meteorological station that day. The market resolves to a specific temperature range in Celsius, sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures—a distinction that matters for automated resolution feeds and API-dependent workflows. Traders building conditional order logic should note the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, creating a hard cutoff for intraday temperature spikes that occur after local midnight.

Historical August temperatures at Guangzhou Baiyun show consistent patterns: daily highs typically range between 32–35°C during mid-August, with occasional peaks above 36°C during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Comparable East Asian airport stations (Shanghai Pudong, Hong Kong) exhibit similar thermal profiles, making historical volatility data from those sources useful for calibrating range expectations.

The primary catalyst remains the monsoon circulation pattern forecast for early-to-mid August 2026. China's meteorological authority releases 10-day outlooks fortnightly; traders should monitor those releases in late July for any signals of anomalous heat or tropical system activity that could suppress temperatures. Humidity levels and cloud cover directly suppress peak readings, so satellite imagery and atmospheric pressure trends warrant programmatic tracking if building automated hedges across related weather markets.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.