Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the peak daytime heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit by Wunderground. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would first ingest the station’s historical daily highs to build a baseline distribution, then overlay current forecast models to adjust for anomalies. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the “YES” outcome suggests the market believes the temperature will fall outside a specific, likely high, threshold, though the exact resolution bands remain critical to interpret this zero figure correctly.

Historical data frames how to read this probability: the all-time high for Dallas on 28 June is 110°F, recorded in 1980, while recent June 2026 forecasts show daily highs consistently between 96°F and 100°F [4][5]. Comparable cases from late June 2026, such as the 25 June market where 92–93°F was the frontrunner at 100%, indicate that temperatures in this range are typical for the period [1]. The 0% probability likely reflects a mismatch between the market’s assumed threshold and the realistic 96–100°F range, not an expectation of extreme cold.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KDAL and Wunderground’s final daily max, as these are the official resolution sources [3][6]. A key catalyst is the ongoing heatwave across the DFW region, with May averaging 4.2°F above normal and ranking as the 6th hottest May since 1899, suggesting sustained high pressure into June [7]. No new announcements are required; the dependency is purely on the automated data feed from Wunderground, which will publish the final max at 12:00 UTC on 29 June, closing the settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Dallas on June 28? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.