Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will experience a specific peak temperature on 27 July 2026, recorded at Love Field Station. The market resolves to whichever temperature band captures the highest reading for that calendar day, with Wunderground's historical weather database serving as the authoritative source. Traders accessing this market programmatically will need to cross-reference the settlement data against Wunderground's API or historical archive once the resolution window closes at midday UTC on 27 July.

July temperatures in Dallas typically range between 92–98°F, with the city's all-time July high of 103°F set in 2011. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either insufficient liquidity or traders positioning defensively ahead of the settlement window. Historical July data from Love Field shows that extreme heat events (above 100°F) occur roughly once per decade during this month, making mid-range outcomes (94–97°F) statistically more probable than outlier scenarios. Reviewing Wunderground's five-year July averages for Dallas provides a baseline for calibrating position sizing.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts released in early July 2026, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings issued for the Dallas–Fort Worth region. Upper-air pattern shifts driven by high-pressure systems typically materialise 7–10 days before peak temperatures, allowing conditional order logic to trigger entries based on meteorological triggers. The settlement mechanism depends entirely on Wunderground's historical records, so verifying data availability and timestamp precision before the resolution window closes remains essential for dispute avoidance.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Dallas on July 27? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.