Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event in question is the peak heat recorded at Dallas Love Field on 16 July 2026, measured in degrees Fahrenheit and resolved via Wunderground history. A power-user evaluating this market programmatically would note the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for the lowest range, yet the market data reveals a stark contradiction: the leading outcome is “88–89°F” at 100%, suggesting the 0% figure refers to a specific low-range option rather than the event’s impossibility[1].

Historically, mid-July in Dallas routinely sees highs between 90°F and 100°F, with 88–89°F representing a notably cool outlier for the season. The 100% allocation to this narrow band implies either a model error, a liquidity glitch, or an unusual forecast from a trusted source that has not yet been corrected by the crowd[1]. Comparable cases from 2023 and 2024 show similar deviations when early algorithmic models override human sentiment, often correcting within hours as arbitrageurs enter.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s hourly updates for KDAL and any sudden shifts in Wunderground’s historical feed, as settlement depends entirely on that source[2]. No specific announcements are scheduled, but dependencies include the reliability of the Wunderground API and the timing of its daily data refresh. A recent NOAA update confirms ongoing monitoring of KDAL’s instrumentation, which could affect resolution if calibration issues arise[2].

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.