Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas will record a daily high temperature on 13 July 2026, measured at Love Field Station. The settlement hinges on identifying which temperature band contains that single highest reading, with resolution sourced directly from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific location and date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either absent from this market or treating it as unresolved pending actual weather data.

Historical July temperatures at Dallas Love Field show consistent patterns useful for calibrating expectations. The station's 30-year average high for mid-July sits around 95–97°F, with extremes ranging from 109°F (2011) down to 86°F (1997). Recent summers have trended warmer; 2023 and 2024 both saw multiple days exceeding 100°F during July. For programmatic traders, this means establishing baseline ranges around the 95–100°F band as most probable, with tail risk extending toward 105°F+ during heat domes or toward the low 90s if an early cold front pushes through.

Traders monitoring this market should track National Weather Service forecasts and Climate Prediction Center outlooks released in early July 2026, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings for North Texas. Upper-level ridge positioning and Gulf moisture availability in the week preceding 13 July will be the primary drivers. Conditional order logic could be structured around NWS heat alerts: if a heat advisory is issued for Dallas County, shift probability mass toward higher temperature bands; conversely, if a frontal system is forecast to move through, lower expectations. Weather Underground's historical data portal allows backtesting this approach against prior July 13 readings to refine threshold placement.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.