Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event hinges on the peak temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport on 26 June 2026, with settlement depending on Wunderground’s official daily high in degrees Celsius. This market currently implies a 0% probability for the “YES” outcome, suggesting the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specified range, likely due to seasonal patterns or recent meteorological shifts.

Historically, Chongqing’s June highs typically range between 26°C and 35°C, occasionally reaching 38°C, with the warmest ten-day window occurring between 21–30 June, averaging 26.3°C [7][9]. Recent resolved markets for earlier June dates, such as 22 and 23 June, confirm temperatures staying within or below 25°C, reinforcing the crowd’s low confidence in higher thresholds [2][3]. These comparable cases frame the current 0% probability as consistent with seasonal norms rather than an outlier signal.

Traders should monitor real-time weather updates from the National Weather Service and Wunderground for anomalies, as Chongqing experiences peak precipitation in June, which can suppress daytime highs [1][5]. While no specific announcements are pending, the dependency on official station data means any sensor drift or reporting delay could alter resolution. A recent forecast from AccuWeather notes daily highs between 75°F and 95°F (24°C–35°C) for June 2026, aligning with the crowd’s expectation of moderate temperatures [4]. Programmatic approaches would involve scraping Wunderground’s API hourly and cross-referencing with NWS time-series data to flag deviations before settlement.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.