Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing faces its peak summer heat on 2 July 2026, with the market tracking the highest temperature recorded at the Jiangbei International Airport Station. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a specific outcome suggests traders are either hedging against extreme volatility or awaiting definitive data before committing, despite the settlement window closing shortly after midday UTC.

Historical July data frames this probability as unusually cautious, given that daytime temperatures in Chongqing typically range from 32 to 37°C, with daily highs rarely falling below 32°C or exceeding 102°F [3][7]. While the city’s all-time record sits at 44.5°C in Qijiang District, airport station peaks in July have historically stayed near 32°C, often moderated by regional monsoon activity [1][6]. Recent records show China experienced its hottest July on record since 1961, yet local peaks in Chongqing have rarely breached 39°C, indicating a potential divergence between national trends and airport-specific readings [5][6].

A power-user approaching this programmatically would monitor real-time Wunderground feeds for the Jiangbei station, cross-referencing with local meteorological announcements for heatwave warnings or sudden precipitation shifts. Traders should watch for scheduled updates from the China Meteorological Administration regarding the southwest heatwave, which recently forced residents to seek shelter as temperatures surged [6]. The dependency on a single data point from Wunderground means any latency or sensor error could skew the resolution, making automated alerts for data anomalies essential for conditional order execution. Recent news confirms Chongqing is under a severe heatwave, with temperatures approaching record levels, which could push the airport reading above typical July averages if the monsoon fails to arrive [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.