Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing will experience peak summer heat on 11 August 2026, with the highest temperature recorded at Jiangbei International Airport Station determining the settlement outcome. The market resolves to a specific temperature range based on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground, not the summary high-low figures—a distinction that matters when automated feeds pull data from multiple sources. Traders integrating this market into conditional order logic should flag the resolution source hierarchy explicitly, as discrepancies between observation-level and summary-level readings occur in roughly 3–5% of cases across Chinese weather stations during high-heat periods.

Chongqing's August temperatures have ranged from 38°C to 42°C over the past decade, with 2013 and 2022 recording extremes above 40°C during sustained heatwaves. The current 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-baseline outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Historical volatility in East Asian summer patterns—driven by the East Asian summer monsoon positioning and Tibetan high-pressure systems—creates genuine uncertainty; traders should cross-reference China Meteorological Administration forecasts and any issued heat warnings approximately two weeks prior to settlement.

Programmatic traders should establish monitoring for official heatwave alerts issued by Chongqing's meteorological bureau, which typically precede extreme-temperature events by 5–10 days. The Weather Underground Daily Observations table updates hourly; building a scraper to track readings from mid-July onwards allows calibration of local microclimatic patterns around the airport station, which sits in an urban heat-island zone that can run 1–2°C warmer than surrounding areas.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.