Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

The real-world event is the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 20 June, which is the figure this market will settle against. For a programmatic approach, the key step is to map the settlement source to the daily history page and read the day’s maximum in Celsius, rather than relying on general city forecasts or nearby stations, because the contract resolves on the airport observation specifically.

A 0% crowd-implied probability for a given temperature range usually points to the market pricing that outcome as effectively impossible, which is a useful flag for model checks rather than a signal that the weather itself is extraordinary. Chengdu’s June climate is normally warm and humid: typical June highs are around 24–28°C in guide and forecast material, while the summer season runs hotter overall and can still produce markedly warmer afternoons when cloud cover breaks.[1][3][5][7] Historical monitoring for ZUUU also shows that daily temperatures can vary materially within a single June day, so a trader should treat the intraday high, not the morning reading, as the relevant variable.[2][4]

The main catalysts are the live weather sequence into early afternoon local time, plus any thunderstorm timing, cloud breaks, or rain bands that suppress or release daytime heating. Chengdu June forecasts commonly include showers or thunderstorms, and the airport-specific forecast for 20–21 June points to rain or drizzle around the period, which would cap upside if it persists through the warmest hours.[5][8] A power-user would watch the hourly METAR-style feed, compare it with the daily-history maximum as the day progresses, and automate alerts around threshold bands that match the contract’s resolution ranges rather than a single-point temperature.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.