Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport is the settlement source, so the practical question is whether the day’s **maximum** at that station lands in the band containing the afternoon peak, not what the citywide forecast says in general. Current live and forecast feeds point to a warm, humid afternoon, with Chengdu around 24°C at observation time and short-range forecasts clustering around **33–38°C** highs, which makes a sub-30°C outcome look inconsistent with the weather pattern already in place.[2][3][8][9][11]

For historical framing, July in Chengdu is usually hot and wet rather than cool: published July guides put typical daytime temperatures around **30–35°C** or about **31°C**, with some days reaching **38°C**.[12][14][19] That means a market price of 0% YES is only rational if the contract band is far above the expected airport high or if traders are anchoring to a resolution interval that does not match the forecast. In a programmatic setup, a bot would ingest the airport-specific hourly forecast, compare the expected daily high against the market’s temperature bins, and place orders only when the implied band aligns with the station’s likely peak.

The main catalysts are the midday-to-afternoon forecast updates, any thunderstorm timing shifts, and whether showers or cloud build-up cap the maximum before the peak heating window. Local and international forecasts already mention rain risk and thunderstorms on adjacent days, so the key dependency is not the existence of precipitation, but whether it arrives early enough to suppress the day’s high.[9][13][15] A power-user monitoring this market would typically watch hourly refreshes from the station-linked sources and the official weather page for Chengdu Shuangliu Airport, because small changes in cloud cover or storm initiation can move the top reading by several degrees.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.