Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu's summer temperatures in late July typically peak between 28–35°C, with occasional spikes above 36°C during heat waves. The city sits in a basin with humid subtropical conditions; July is consistently the warmest month, though afternoon thunderstorms can suppress peak readings. Historical data from Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport—the official settlement source—shows considerable year-to-year variation, with 2022 recording 39.4°C on 25 July and 2023 reaching 37.8°C the same date. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either heavily discounting extreme heat outcomes or the market has insufficient liquidity to price tail scenarios accurately.

For programmatic evaluation, traders should cross-reference Wunderground's historical archive against China Meteorological Administration datasets to validate consistency. The settlement mechanism depends on a single daily maximum reading from one station, making localised weather patterns—urban heat island effects, afternoon convection timing—material to outcomes. Recent patterns show Chengdu experiencing fewer extreme heat days than inland provinces; the 2024 summer saw peak temperatures cluster in the 33–35°C band during late July.

Conditional order strategies would benefit from real-time monitoring of medium-range forecasts (10–14 days prior) from European or American weather models, which typically show higher skill for temperature extremes in East Asia. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 25 July 2026, creating a hard cutoff for live weather data ingestion. Traders should establish automated feeds from Wunderground's API to capture the final reading before resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.