Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?

Platform comparison

Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 24 July, taken from Wunderground’s daily history page, and the market resolves to whichever Celsius band contains that day’s peak reading. For a programmatic workflow, that means polling the station page after the local day has closed, converting any Fahrenheit display back to Celsius, then mapping the maximum observed value into the market’s settlement range.

The current 0% implied probability is hard to reconcile with Chengdu’s July climatology. Historical guidance describes July as hot and humid, with daytime highs commonly around 29–37°C and an average high near 30°C, while nearby forecast services have also shown upper-20s to mid-30s conditions for Chengdu in late July[3][1]. That matters for traders using bots or conditional orders because the question is not whether Chengdu is warm, but whether the airport station posts an extreme enough reading to cross the next band, which can hinge on a brief mid-afternoon spike rather than the daily mean.

The main catalysts are local weather dynamics rather than scheduled announcements: cloud cover, monsoon rainfall, and the timing of any thunderstorm all affect the day’s maximum, and Chengdu’s July pattern is explicitly rainy and humid[3][4]. A power-user would usually watch the hourly forecast, precipitation radar, and any aviation or airport weather updates, then refresh the Wunderground history entry once the settlement window is effectively locked by local-day completion. If the station remains under persistent cloud and rain, lower temperature bands become more plausible; if sunshine breaks through for a few hours, the top end of the range comes back into play[1][3][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.