Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s outcome here will be the day’s **maximum air temperature** at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport, with settlement tied to the highest reading recorded by Wunderground on 23 July. The current crowd price is unusual: a **0% YES** implies traders are not assigning any meaningful value to the specific framing at present, even though the market on Polymarket is already leaning towards a hot finish, with **38°C** the frontrunner at 44% and **39°C** next at 22%.[1]

For a programme-driven approach, the practical comparison is less “will it be hot?” and more “which bucket does the terminal max land in?”. Historical Chengdu summer weather makes the upper-30s a live possibility, so a trader using bots or conditional orders would typically watch the intraday trend rather than headline forecasts alone: if the airport sensor pushes into the mid-30s by late morning, the probability mass tends to migrate towards the highest adjacent bands. The current 0% YES reading therefore looks like a mispriced or stale state rather than a calibrated temperature view, which matters if you are polling the order book or automating entries.

The key catalysts are the local diurnal heating profile, cloud cover, rainfall timing, and any official forecast updates for Sichuan Basin heat or thunderstorm interruptions. Chengdu’s temperature often peaks later in the afternoon, so the most relevant data feed is the airport station’s live progression rather than city-wide averages; in trading terms, the dependency is on whether the day trends towards clear-sky warming or gets capped by convection. If you are scripting this market, the useful trigger is not a single forecast print but the sequence of hourly observations versus the settlement bands, with the final Wunderground high deciding the outcome.[1]

Sources: 1

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 23? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.