Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 20?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s summer heat is a defining feature of its climate, with July typically delivering the year’s peak temperatures. The market tracks the highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on 20 July 2026, resolved via Wunderground’s daily history for station ZUUU. A current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside any defined “high” threshold, though the specific range triggering YES is not stated in the prompt.

Historically, Chengdu has seen July highs exceed 35°C, with records approaching 37–38°C in recent decades. For example, in July 2022, the city recorded a peak of 37.2°C at Shuangliu, while 2023 saw similar extremes during a prolonged heatwave. These cases indicate that a 0% probability is statistically anomalous unless the YES threshold is set unusually high (e.g., above 39°C). Programmatic traders would back-test Wunderground’s ZUUU dataset for July 20–22 across 2015–2025 to calibrate expected distributions and identify outlier thresholds.

Key catalysts include the China Meteorological Administration’s mid-July heat forecasts and local emergency alerts for extreme temperatures, which often precede record highs. A recent report from the South China Morning Post (18 July 2026) noted Sichuan Province entering a “high-temperature warning” phase, with Chengdu expected to face sustained heat through late July. Traders monitoring this market should automate checks on Wunderground’s hourly updates for ZUUU on 20 July, using conditional orders to adjust positions if the 12:00 UTC settlement window approaches with temperatures trending above 35°C.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.