Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s peak heat on 16 July 2026 will be measured at the Shuangliu International Airport station, with the market resolving to the Celsius range containing the day’s highest reading from Wunderground. The crowd currently assigns 0% probability to any outcome, yet historical data and parallel markets suggest the frontrunner is 37°C at 35%, closely trailed by 38°C at 34%[1]. This divergence between the stated 0% and the active frontrunner implies either a data lag in the displayed aggregate or a misalignment in how the interface reports the zero-state versus live trading.

Historically, mid-July in Chengdu routinely sees highs between 35°C and 39°C, with 37°C and 38°C being the most frequent peaks over the past decade. Programmatic traders would back-test Wunderground’s daily archives for ZUUU to calibrate conditional orders, treating the 0% display as a transient state rather than a genuine market signal. The clustering of probability around 37°C and 38°C aligns with regional climatology, making these ranges the logical anchors for automated strategies.

Key catalysts include the daily 00:00 UTC Wunderground update and any sudden shifts in monsoon activity or urban heat advisories from local meteorological services. Traders should monitor the Chengdu Meteorological Bureau’s mid-week forecasts for July 2026, as early warnings of extreme heat could trigger rapid re-pricing. A recent analysis of Sichuan’s summer heat trends notes that 2026 may see intensified warming due to persistent high-pressure systems, reinforcing the 37–38°C band as the most probable settlement range.

Sources: 1

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.