Highest temperature in Busan on August 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's August weather will determine whether the highest temperature recorded at Gimhae International Airport on 18 August 2026 falls into one of several defined ranges. The resolution hinges on data from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—the granular, station-level record rather than summary figures—which captures intraday temperature fluctuations with precision that matters when ranges are narrow. This specificity is material: a trader automating resolution checks would need to query the correct endpoint and parse the correct field, as discrepancies between Weather Underground's summary and observation tables have historically caused disputes in weather markets.

August in Busan typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings into the mid-30s. Historical August data from Gimhae shows that extreme temperatures (above 35°C) occur roughly once per decade; the 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be pricing for a range well above typical August conditions. Comparable Korean summer markets have resolved based on Seoul or Incheon data, where August extremes cluster around 33–34°C, providing a baseline for calibrating expectations at Busan's coastal location, which tends slightly cooler than inland stations.

Traders should monitor tropical cyclone forecasts from late July onwards, as typhoon activity can suppress temperatures or create sharp intraday swings. The Korea Meteorological Administration publishes 10-day forecasts by early August; conditional orders tied to those releases would allow systematic positioning ahead of the settlement window. API access to historical Gimhae records via Weather Underground's data feeds enables backtesting against past August patterns, essential for validating range assumptions before committing capital.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.