Highest temperature in Busan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Busan's August weather will determine where the daily maximum temperature falls on 17 August 2026, with resolution tied to the Gimhae International Airport weather station's Daily Observations table on Weather Underground. This distinction matters operationally: the Daily Observations granular dataset often records peak temperatures that the summary Day High & Low section may round or miss, particularly during rapid afternoon heating cycles common in South Korea's monsoon transition period. Traders building automated resolution checkers should parse the primary source directly rather than relying on summary fields.

Busan's August highs typically cluster between 28–32°C, though heat waves push readings above 35°C roughly once per decade. The 0% crowd probability suggests the market may be calibrated to a narrow or unusually high temperature band; historical August data from Gimhae shows that temperatures exceeding 36°C occur in fewer than 5% of years. Comparable Korean summer markets have resolved across multiple temperature brackets, with mid-range outcomes (30–33°C) historically most frequent. Reviewing archived Wunderground records for prior 17 August dates at this station provides the most reliable baseline for conditional order thresholds.

Traders should monitor Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts from early August 2026, particularly any alerts for heat domes or tropical air mass incursions. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during mid-August can suppress temperatures or trigger sudden spikes depending on timing and track. Setting up API-based daily temperature tracking from mid-month onwards allows programmatic detection of trending patterns that might shift implied probabilities before settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Busan on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.