Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on May 22?

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Market context

The event is the highest temperature recorded at Buenos Aires’ Ministro Pistarini International Airport on 22 May 2026, with settlement based on the final Wunderground history reading in degrees Celsius. For a programmatic workflow, the cleanest approach is to treat the market as a single-day high-temperature query, poll the station page after the day closes, and map the final Celsius maximum into the market’s range buckets once the record is finalised. With crowd-implied YES at 0%, the market is effectively pricing an outcome above the visible alternatives as negligible, so the practical task is to compare the day’s observed maximum against the relevant bands rather than to infer a directional weather story.

Comparable May data in Buenos Aires point to a cool late-autumn profile rather than anything extreme. WeatherSpark’s long-run May averages for the city show daytime highs easing from about 19°C at the start of the month to around 16°C by month-end, with lows near 11°C to 8°C, and AccuWeather’s May forecast for Buenos Aires has also sat in the low-to-mid teens Celsius for highs. That means a reading near the upper end of the monthly range is plausible, but a very hot print would be unusual. In practical terms, a trader scanning historical distributions or building a bot should weight persistence of mild autumn conditions far more heavily than isolated warm spikes.

The main catalysts are the day’s actual forecast evolution, any late change in cloud cover, wind or rainfall, and whether airport observations differ from city-centre weather. For an automated setup, the useful dependency chain is: check the airport station forecast before the close of the UTC day, monitor any abrupt warm advection or frontal passage, then wait for Wunderground’s finalised daily record rather than intraday snapshots. At this time of year, Buenos Aires is typically on a cooling trend into winter, so the key question is not whether it is warm, but whether the airport briefly reaches the top bucket before temperatures fall after midday.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

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FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.