Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 18?

Platform comparison

Market context

Buenos Aires experiences winter conditions in July, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 13–17°C at Ministro Pistarini International Airport. The 0% crowd probability reflects the market's binary structure: traders are positioning against specific temperature thresholds rather than expressing genuine uncertainty about whether the airport will record *some* temperature on that date. For programmatic traders, this setup requires clarity on the exact range brackets—whether the market resolves to "13–15°C," "15–17°C," or similar increments. Historical data from July 2023 and 2024 shows Buenos Aires rarely exceeded 18°C during mid-winter, establishing a baseline for evaluating which temperature band carries genuine edge versus noise.

The Southern Hemisphere's winter pattern dominates July outcomes, with cold fronts occasionally pushing highs below 10°C and rare warm spells reaching 20°C. Traders should monitor the 10–14 day forecast window preceding 18 July 2026 for anomalous pressure systems or warm air advection from the north. Wunderground's historical station data at SAEZ (Ezeiza) provides the settlement source, so conditional order logic should account for potential reporting delays or sensor recalibration; cross-referencing with Argentina's Servicio Meteorológico Nacional offers redundancy. The current 0% reading suggests the crowd has either not engaged with this market or is waiting for forecast certainty closer to the event window—typical behaviour for weather markets with extended settlement periods.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.