Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak daytime temperature recorded at Beijing Capital International Airport on 28 June 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and resolved via Wunderground data. Current market pricing assigns a 0% probability to the "YES" outcome for any temperature below 34°C, while the frontrunner outcome is locked at exactly 34°C with 100% confidence[1]. This extreme consensus mirrors the adjacent market for 26 June, which also settled at 34°C with identical pricing, suggesting the crowd views this date as a fixed thermal anchor rather than a variable event[2].

Historical seasonal data confirms Beijing’s summer typically hovers between 25°C and 35°C, with occasional heatwaves pushing temperatures higher[3]. Recent records show Beijing shattered its June high in a scorching heatwave, hitting 106°F (approximately 41°C), indicating that 34°C is a conservative baseline rather than an outlier[7]. For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the 100% confidence in 34°C suggests the algorithmic model has already ingested the forecasted high of 77°F to 94°F (25°C to 34°C) for June 2026, making lower ranges statistically negligible[4].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground updates for the specific station ZBAA, as the resolution source is strictly the highest temperature recorded for all times on that day[1]. While no immediate weather announcements are pending, the dependency on the gear icon temperature setting (switching between °F and °C) is critical for accurate data parsing[1]. The settlement window ending 2026-06-28T12:00:00Z requires automated scripts to capture the final reading before the cutoff, ensuring no latency skews the conditional order execution[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Beijing on June 28? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.