Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16?

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Market context

Beijing's meteorological conditions on 16 June 2026 will determine the daily high temperature recorded at Capital International Airport Station. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database, which logs hourly observations throughout the day. For programmatic traders, this requires parsing Wunderground's API or scraping the historical page after the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on that date. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range of options.

Historical June temperatures in Beijing cluster around 25–32°C, with occasional peaks above 35°C during heat waves. The 2023 and 2024 summer seasons saw mid-June highs consistently in the 28–31°C range, though 2022 recorded a 36°C spike on 15 June. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference the China Meteorological Administration's seasonal forecasts and long-range models issued in May 2026, which typically project June conditions with reasonable accuracy. The current zero probability across all ranges suggests the market may lack sufficient participation to reflect genuine uncertainty.

Conditional order logic becomes relevant here: a trader might set triggers based on May 2026 climate outlooks or early June weather patterns that suggest deviation from the historical mean. Wunderground's data feed updates daily, allowing post-hoc verification once June arrives. The settlement mechanism is straightforward—no disputes over measurement methodology—making this suitable for automated resolution workflows. Traders should monitor whether the market develops meaningful price discovery as June approaches or remains illiquid throughout.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on June 16? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.