Highest temperature in Beijing on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing on 6 July 2026 will see its peak temperature recorded at the Capital International Airport, a metric that defines the resolution of this prediction market. Historically, early July is Beijing’s hottest and most rainy period, with daytime averages hovering around 30°C and frequent spikes exceeding 40°C. For instance, on 6 July last year, the southern suburb observatory registered 40.1°C, while CNN reported similar scorching conditions across the capital in 2023, confirming that 0% YES probability for a lower range is statistically sound given the climate’s volatility [6][8].

A programmatic trader should monitor real-time weather feeds from Wunderground and the National Weather Service, setting conditional orders to react if temperatures breach 35°C before midday. Key catalysts include the daily weather forecast updates and any sudden shifts in rainfall, which can temporarily suppress peak heat. Recent travel forums note that early July heat is “brutal,” with temperatures consistently reaching 40°C, reinforcing the need to watch for heatwave announcements from local meteorological agencies [9]. The settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC means traders must act swiftly on morning data, as afternoon peaks often determine the final outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.