Highest temperature in Beijing on July 25?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's summer temperatures in late July typically peak between 32–35°C, with occasional extremes reaching 36–37°C during heat waves. The settlement mechanism relies on historical data from Beijing Capital International Airport Station, accessible via Weather Underground's daily archive. A trader automating this forecast would need to cross-reference multiple weather models—the China Meteorological Administration's operational forecasts, ECMWF ensemble runs, and GFS data—then map the predicted high against the market's temperature bins. The current 0% probability on all ranges suggests either a data feed issue or settlement ambiguity rather than genuine meteorological consensus.

Historical July records for Beijing show that temperatures exceeding 37°C occur roughly once every three to five years during the summer season. The 2010 heat wave produced readings above 40°C, whilst more typical recent Julys have settled in the 33–35°C band. Comparing this market's implied distribution to climatological normals reveals whether traders are pricing in an anomalously cool or warm pattern for mid-to-late July 2026.

Traders should monitor China's seasonal weather outlooks released by the national meteorological bureau in June 2026, as these inform medium-range model consensus. Real-time tracking would involve querying Weather Underground's API hourly from 24 July onwards to capture forecast updates, then executing conditional orders if model agreement strengthens around specific temperature thresholds. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on 25 July, allowing only morning-of adjustments based on final observations.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.