Highest temperature in Beijing on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 13 July 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station, with settlement tied to the peak Celsius reading recorded by Wunderground for that day. Historically, mid-July in Beijing sees daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C but occasionally surging past 40°C during extreme heatwaves [1][3]. The market’s current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the implied range—likely below the lowest bracket offered. This aligns with patterns from comparable dates: on 11 July across multiple years, maxima have ranged from 33°C to 36°C, while extreme events like 5 July 2010 hit 42.1°C [7][9]. Such volatility suggests the 0% figure may reflect range selection rather than a belief in cold conditions.

Programmatically, traders should script queries to Wunderground’s daily history API for ZBAA, filtering for 13 July across recent years to build a distribution of likely maxima. Key catalysts include the National Meteorological Centre’s weekly heatwave advisories and any official announcements on urban cooling measures, which can dampen peak readings [2]. A recent Reuters report noted Beijing’s 41.1°C record in June 2023, underscoring how heatwaves can rapidly shift expectations [2]. Conditional orders tied to real-time temperature feeds from AQI.in or WeatherSpark could automate entry as the day approaches, while copy-trading bots monitoring similar weather markets may offer early signals on range shifts [3][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.