Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 12 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily peak for that date. The market currently prices any outcome above the implied threshold at 0% YES, suggesting the crowd expects temperatures to stay within a lower band despite July being Beijing’s hottest month.

Historically, July in Beijing sees daily highs averaging around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C or exceeding 35°C, though extreme spikes have occurred. In 2023, the month’s peak reached 40°C, and China recorded its hottest July on record in 2024, with southern Beijing observatories surpassing 40°C for the first time [1][5]. These outliers frame the 0% probability as potentially premature, especially if a heatwave mirrors recent unprecedented conditions [7].

Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground data for ZBAA and watch for regional heatwave announcements from China’s National Meteorological Centre, which often precede record-breaking days. Recent coverage notes an unprecedented July heatwave sweeping China with temperatures exceeding 35°C across large areas [7]. Programmatically, a bot could poll Wunderground hourly, trigger conditional orders if temperatures breach 35°C, and cross-reference with official forecasts to adjust exposure before the 12:00 UTC settlement window.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.