Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing’s highest temperature on 11 July 2026 will be recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, with resolution based on Wunderground’s daily peak in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows a 0% crowd-implied probability for any YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the temperature to fall outside the predefined range, though historical data indicates July is Beijing’s hottest month, with peaks often reaching 40°C or higher[1].

Historical records show Beijing’s all-time high of 41.9°C occurred on 24 July 1999, while July 2023 saw temperatures climb to 40°C amid high humidity[1][2]. Average daily highs in July hover around 31°C (88°F), rarely dipping below 26°C (78°F) or exceeding 36°C (96°F)[3]. A programmatically minded trader would script a parser to pull Wunderground’s ZBAA station data at settlement, cross-referencing it with past July peaks to assess whether the current 0% probability reflects a genuine outlier expectation or a mispriced range.

Key catalysts include China’s national heatwave monitoring schedules and any local authority advisories urging outdoor time limits during extreme heat, as seen in recent years[2]. Reuters reported China experienced its hottest month in recent history in July 2024, with average temperatures eclipsing previous records[10]. Traders should monitor real-time Wunderground feeds and official meteorological bulletins, as sudden shifts in humidity or cloud cover can rapidly alter peak temperatures, making conditional orders or copy-trading bots effective for reacting to live data spikes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on July 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.