Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing's daily maximum temperature on 11 August 2026 will be measured at the Capital International Airport Station and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, establishing a specific data point that resolves this market into one of several defined temperature bands. The distinction between the Daily Observations granular readings and the Day High & Low summary section matters operationally; automated resolution systems must query the correct source table to avoid settlement disputes.

August represents Beijing's peak summer season, with historical highs typically ranging between 32–36°C during this period. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity attracting traders to establish positions. Reviewing Weather Underground's historical data for Beijing on comparable dates—11 August 2023 recorded 33.8°C, whilst 11 August 2024 reached 34.2°C—provides calibration for what constitutes typical versus anomalous conditions. Traders building conditional orders or bot-based monitoring should establish thresholds around these precedents.

The primary variable affecting August temperatures in Beijing remains monsoon activity and upper-atmosphere circulation patterns, both typically established by early summer. Forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration, typically issued fortnightly, will offer the most actionable signals as the settlement window approaches. Traders integrating this market into broader climate-hedging strategies should monitor whether any unusual atmospheric patterns emerge in July 2026, as these would propagate into early August conditions. The Weather Underground API permits programmatic polling of historical station data, enabling backtesting against previous August 11th readings to refine band-selection logic.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Beijing on August 11? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.