Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Atlanta’s settlement temperature comes from the Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport station on 22 May, with the market paying on the day’s final reported high in Wunderground once the data are final. At the moment, the contract is effectively a binary question on whether the airport reaches a fairly ordinary late-spring high before the observation window closes. The crowd-implied 0% on the top outcome suggests the book is already anchored well below the upper bins, so a trader treating this programmatically would normally bias towards the forecast distribution rather than the headline number, then map the airport’s hourly path against the settlement cut-off.

Historically, Atlanta’s late-May highs cluster around the low 80s Fahrenheit, with occasional excursions into the upper 80s but fewer extreme outcomes than in midsummer. The climatological record for May does show plenty of 90°F-plus prints, yet those are scattered and not the base case for a single day. That matters for a market like this because the payoff depends on one station, one calendar day, and one final maximum; if the morning forecast cools or cloud cover persists, the path to the highest bins narrows quickly. A rules-based trader would usually ingest the National Weather Service hourly forecast, compare it with private-weather feeds, and only then adjust conditional orders around the relevant range buckets.

The immediate catalysts are the short-range forecast updates, any shifts in cloud cover or afternoon convection, and the exact timing of the day’s warmest hour versus the settlement window. National Weather Service guidance for Atlanta has pointed to a high in the low-80s with mostly cloudy skies and scattered afternoon showers, which aligns with the market’s muted pricing at the upper end. The practical dependency is the airport observation itself: even a small late-afternoon spike can change the final band, so bots watching this market tend to update off hourly temperature, dew point, wind direction, and rainfall risk rather than the daily high alone.

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Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Atlanta on May 22? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.