Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Atlanta’s **1 August maximum** is a simple airport-station weather print: the settlement price will depend on the highest Fahrenheit reading logged at Hartsfield-Jackson International Airport on that calendar day, with the market only resolving once the following day’s first datapoint is published. For a programmatic workflow, the cleanest approach is to poll the Wunderground history page near the settlement cutoff, capture the day’s max, and map it into the market’s temperature bins rather than trying to infer from headlines or citywide averages.

The historical frame is straightforward. Atlanta’s long-run August record high is **104°F**, while the average high on 1 August is about **89.6°F** and the record for that date is **99°F**[1]. That means the current **0% YES** crowd price is not a statement about the thermometer itself, but about the specific range selected by the market and the probability mass traders are assigning to the airport station landing in that band. In practice, August 1 usually sits in the upper-80s to low-90s, so a model that ingests daily forecast highs, dew point, cloud cover, and convective risk would normally anchor around those bins rather than the extreme tail[1][15].

The main catalysts to watch are the local forecast cycle, afternoon thunderstorm coverage, and any late revisions to the station history feed before settlement. Polymarket notes that revisions inside the market window can count until the first datapoint for the next date appears, so a bot should re-check the source after midnight UTC and again once the next day’s observations begin to post[2]. Recent guidance for Atlanta has generally pointed to mid-80s to upper-80s conditions under partly cloudy skies, with thunderstorms and cloud cover capable of shaving a degree or two off the day’s peak, which is exactly the kind of edge that can move a tight-bin market[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Atlanta on August 1? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.