Highest temperature in Ankara on May 24?

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Market context

Ankara's maximum temperature on 24 May 2026 will be recorded at Esenboğa International Airport, the city's primary meteorological station. The settlement hinges on Wunderground's historical weather database, which aggregates hourly readings throughout the day to determine the single highest temperature. Traders will need to cross-reference the station's live feed against seasonal norms and synoptic forecasts issued in the days preceding the event.

May temperatures in Ankara typically range between 18–28°C, though extremes above 32°C occur roughly once per decade during late spring heat waves. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across all outcome ranges. Historical data from Esenboğa shows that May 24 has seen highs between 22–29°C over the past fifteen years, with only two instances exceeding 30°C since 2010. Comparable late-May events in central Anatolia correlate strongly with North African pressure systems and the timing of the Mediterranean monsoon withdrawal.

Programmatic traders should monitor Turkish meteorological forecasts (TSMS) and European model consensus from mid-May onwards, as these typically converge three to five days before settlement. Wunderground's data lag—often 24–48 hours—means final resolution depends on whether the station reports complete daily records without gaps. Conditional orders keyed to ECMWF temperature anomalies or pressure patterns over the Levant would capture shifts in conviction more efficiently than manual monitoring of the resolution source.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.