Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol’s top temperature on 31 July will be set by the day’s highest reading on Wunderground, so traders are really forecasting whether the airport gets a brief warm-up or stays closer to a normal summer day. Late-July Amsterdam usually sits around the low 20s Celsius, with average July highs near 22°C and typical daily highs on 31 July around 24°C in long-run climate summaries, which makes mid-20s the base case rather than any extreme heat.[8][12][13]

The crowd’s 0% YES implies the market is pricing the upper end of the temperature range as effectively unreachable, but Amsterdam has a non-trivial warm tail: the city’s July record is 36.4°C, and recent July extremes have reached the mid- to upper-30s in hot spells.[12][14] For a programmatic trader, the useful filter is not the daily mean but the intraday maximum at Schiphol, because a short-lived afternoon spike can settle the range even if the morning and evening are much cooler.

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast updates and any heat-advisory pattern over north-western Europe, especially if a southerly flow or continental ridge pushes daytime highs above the climatological norm. Wunderground’s daily history page resolves from the station’s observed maximum, so the practical workflow is to poll the live forecast, compare Schiphol against nearby airport and city models, and watch whether the forecast high is tightening into a specific band before the settlement window closes.[3][11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.