Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak Celsius temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on 16 July 2026, resolving via Wunderground history for station EHAM. With the settlement window closing at 12:00 UTC on that date, the current 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range offered, likely due to a forecast of cooler conditions or a lack of extreme heat events for mid-July in the Netherlands.

Historically, mid-July highs in Amsterdam typically range between 20°C and 25°C, though record-breaking summer storms have occasionally disrupted stable weather patterns. In July 2023, a deadly summer storm slammed into the Netherlands, grounding hundreds of flights at Schiphol and causing significant atmospheric turbulence, though this event was defined by wind and rain rather than extreme heat [2]. Traders evaluating this market programmatically should compare the current implied probability against the long-term average for EHAM, noting that a 0% probability often signals a mismatch between the offered range and the seasonal median rather than a guarantee of cold weather.

Key catalysts include the daily 12:00 UTC weather model updates from the National Weather Service, which provide downloadable CSV data for EHAM to validate forecast shifts [1]. A trader building a conditional order bot would monitor the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts for any sudden heatwave advisories or storm developments that could alter the peak temperature before the settlement deadline. Since the resolution source is fixed to Wunderground’s daily maximum, real-time verification of the 16 July peak via the station’s history page is the primary dependency for any automated settlement strategy.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 16? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.