Highest temperature in Amsterdam on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Amsterdam's highest temperature on 16 August 2026 will be measured at Schiphol Airport and recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with settlement tied to the specific granular data rather than summary figures. This distinction matters for programmatic resolution: traders building automated monitoring systems should query the Daily Observations endpoint directly rather than relying on cached day-high summaries, which occasionally diverge from intra-day station records.

Historical August temperatures at Schiphol show a median high around 22–23°C, with extremes ranging from 17°C to 30°C across the past two decades. The 0% crowd probability suggests either a specific temperature threshold has been set above typical summer conditions, or the market reflects genuine uncertainty about which bin will capture the day's peak. Comparable European airport stations (Hamburg, Brussels) exhibit similar volatility on mid-August dates, making this a calibration exercise for traders familiar with continental summer weather patterns.

The Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI) publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days ahead; traders should monitor their mid-August outlook from early August onwards. Larger weather systems—Atlantic lows or heat domes from southern Europe—typically become visible in reliable models five to seven days prior. For conditional-order strategies, setting triggers on KNMI's 10–14 day bulletin updates would capture meaningful shifts in expected temperature ranges before settlement approaches, allowing traders to adjust positions as atmospheric patterns crystallise.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.