Trump out as President by June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump assumed the presidency on 20 January 2025. This market settles YES if he ceases to hold the office—whether through resignation, removal via impeachment and conviction, invocation of the 25th Amendment, or death—at any point before 30 June 2026. The 1% implied probability reflects the historical rarity of mid-term presidential departure in the United States. No sitting president has resigned since Richard Nixon in 1974, and removal via impeachment conviction has never occurred. The 25th Amendment's Section 4 mechanism, which allows the Cabinet and Vice President to declare a president unfit, remains untested in practice.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track several distinct risk vectors. Impeachment proceedings would require House passage followed by Senate conviction (67 votes needed), a threshold that demands substantial bipartisan support; current Republican majorities make this unlikely absent dramatic circumstances. Health events or sudden incapacity would trigger 25th Amendment discussions, though Cabinet consensus is required. Resignation announcements—the most straightforward resolution path—would settle the market immediately upon public statement, regardless of implementation timing. News feeds should flag statements from senior Cabinet members, congressional leadership, and medical advisories. Recent precedent suggests markets of this type typically remain near baseline probability until a concrete triggering event emerges; conditional order logic keyed to specific announcement patterns offers a practical approach for traders seeking to capture tail-risk moves without continuous manual monitoring.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.