Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran would need to make a public commitment to stop *all* uranium enrichment by 31 December 2026, whether unilaterally or in a deal, for this market to resolve Yes. The key point for a programmatic watcher is that the wording is broad: any official pledge to end enrichment for any period counts, so a bot should flag not only final signed agreements but also summit readouts, joint statements, and ministerial press lines that explicitly say enrichment will cease.

Historically, the market starts from a low baseline because Iran has repeatedly treated enrichment as a strategic red line. Under the 2015 JCPOA, Tehran accepted tight limits, but after the US withdrew in 2018 Iran progressively reduced compliance and in January 2020 said it had abandoned all JCPOA limits on enrichment[1][3]. By 2025, the dispute remained centred on enrichment itself, with the IAEA reporting a stockpile of 60% material and talks still stalling over whether Iran would accept any domestic enrichment at all[4]. That history makes a 35% crowd price understandable: a reversal would likely require a major diplomatic shift, not a routine inspection update[2][4].

For traders using alerts or conditional orders, the main catalysts are formal US-Iran negotiations, any Oman-mediated breakthroughs, and whether language appears in a communiqué rather than in vague media briefings[4]. Watch for joint US, Israeli, IAEA, or Gulf statements around talks, UN or IAEA meeting calendars, and any shift in sanctions pressure that could force Tehran back to the table[1][4]. The practical trigger is not “capability” or “pause” language, but explicit public agreement to end enrichment; anything short of that should be treated as non-qualifying for settlement purposes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.