US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill

Platform comparison

Market context

Francesco Passaro and Felix Gill met in the first round of US Open qualifying, with the draw listing Passaro at 45 and Gill at 46 and the match on the hard courts in New York.[5][12] The live match pages and scoreboards indicate the contest was played on 24 August and later completed with Passaro winning 7-6, 6-3, 6-2, which is the key factual anchor for any settlement logic around an event-style market.[1][8][10]

For a probability already sitting at 100% YES, the historical read is simple: once a singles qualifying match is officially completed, the market should track the advancement result rather than pre-match price or ranking noise.[1][10] Comparable ATP qualifying fixtures between adjacent-ranked players tend to be narrow on paper, but the settled outcome matters more than form once the scoreline is recorded, especially when both players are close in ranking and the match has already been played to conclusion.[1][2][4]

A programmatic trader would watch the tournament score feed, official draw updates, and any late retirement or walkover notation before the settlement deadline, because those are the events that can flip a completed-looking market into a void or tie outcome under the rules.[1][5][7] The main dependency is whether the result is locked in by the US Open qualifying draw and scoreboard; if the match status is marked final, there is little remaining exposure apart from any exceptional correction to the official result.[1][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track US Open, Qualification ATP: Francesco Passaro vs Felix Gill across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.