Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in the Granby Challenger match originally set for 13 July 2026, where Milavsky is the programme favourite to advance. The market currently sits at a 100% implied probability for Milavsky, suggesting the crowd views his progression as a certainty despite the match being scheduled for the future.

Historical data from Tennis Tonic supports this heavy weighting, with Milavsky tipped to win in three sets at initial odds of 1.50 against Chan’s 2.375 [1]. In comparable Challenger-level encounters where one player holds a 1.50 odds advantage, the implied probability typically resolves between 65% and 70%, making a 100% market price an outlier that likely reflects a delayed settlement window or a specific copy-trading bot locking the position early. Traders evaluating this programmatically should note that conditional orders placed on such extreme probabilities often fail to capture value if the underlying event is merely postponed rather than cancelled.

Key catalysts include the official start confirmation for the 14 July 2026 H2H fixture, which Tennis Stats lists as occurring at 9:25pm [2]. Any delay beyond the seven-day settlement threshold or a cancellation without a winner would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause, a risk that automated bots must monitor via the tournament schedule API. With the settlement window ending 20 July 2026, the primary dependency is the match completion status rather than in-play performance, meaning the 100% price will only hold if the system confirms the match began and Milavsky advanced without interruption.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.