Geneva Open: Raphael Collignon vs Casper Ruud

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Raphaël Collignon’s match with Casper Ruud at the Geneva Open is the real-world event behind this market. With the crowd at 0% YES, the pricing is essentially treating Collignon’s chance of advancing as negligible unless the match is already resolved off-market or the listing has not been updated. In practical terms, a trader would not read 0% as a literal zero; programme logic usually starts by checking whether the fixture was completed, whether there was a walkover, retirement, or postponement, and whether the settlement window remains open for a delayed result.

The useful comparison is with ATP 250 clay matches where a lower-ranked player opens at near-zero implied probability against a seeded opponent, only for that assumption to be altered by withdrawal news or draw reshuffles. Geneva’s 2026 field has been described by ATP Tour and recent previews as strong, with Casper Ruud a headline name and three-time champion on the entry list, which makes Ruud the baseline favourite in any model that ingests rankings, clay performance and event history. For a power-user running conditional orders, the key is to separate price from execution risk: a 0% quote may reflect stale market depth rather than firm information, so it is worth checking live draw status, completed scores and any official retirement notices before treating the market as effectively closed.

What to watch now is straightforward: the Geneva draw and live scores pages, ATP Tour updates, and any late schedule changes caused by weather or prior matches on the clay courts. The tournament site already publishes round-by-round scores, and ESPN’s live scoreboard shows Collignon listed against Ruud in the event feed, which suggests the decisive factor will be whether the match was actually played to a result before the seven-day deadline. For automated polling or bot workflows, the decision tree is simple: if Ruud is credited with advancement, settle YES for Ruud; if Collignon advances, settle YES for Collignon; if the match is not completed and no winner is determined within the window, the market falls back to 50-50.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.