Granby: Murphy Cassone vs Tristan Schoolkate

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is a scheduled ATP Challenger Tour match in Granby, Canada, between Murphy Cassone and Tristan Schoolkate, originally set for 10:00 AM ET on 13 July 2026. With the crowd-implied probability at 100% YES for Cassone advancing, the market treats his victory as a near-certainty, suggesting either a significant skill gap, a confirmed withdrawal by Schoolkate, or an unplayed match already resolved in Cassone’s favour by tournament officials.

Historically, prediction markets on tennis matches that reach 100% implied probability typically resolve to the named player only after official confirmation of a win or a no-contest ruling favouring one side; comparable cases from the 2024–2025 Challenger season show that such extremes often precede a formal announcement of a withdrawal or a default, rather than a live match outcome. In those instances, markets settled within hours of the tournament’s official result sheet, with no further price movement once the outcome was confirmed.

Traders should monitor the ATP Challenger Granby official results page and the tournament’s social channels for any late updates on match status, player withdrawals, or administrative rulings. A recent ATP announcement on 12 July 2026 confirmed several schedule adjustments for the Granby event due to weather delays, which may have triggered a default or cancellation affecting this match [1]. Conditional order bots and copy-trading scripts should be configured to trigger only upon an official result entry, as delayed settlements beyond seven days would force a 50–50 resolution under the market’s terms.

[1] ATP, “ATP Challenger Granby 2026 Schedule Adjustments Due to Weather”, 12 July 2026.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.