Perugia: Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Andrea Pellegrino

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Daniel Merida Aguilar and Andrea Pellegrino are scheduled to compete in a tennis match at the Perugia tournament on 6 June 2026, with the market settlement window closing on 13 June. The 100% crowd probability reflects either exceptionally high confidence in match completion or minimal liquidity driving the price to extremes—a common pattern in lower-tier ATP Challenger events where fixture certainty is typically high but trading volume remains thin. For programmatic traders, this presents a data-quality challenge: extreme probabilities on illiquid markets often signal insufficient order book depth rather than genuine predictive consensus.

Historical precedent from Challenger-level tournaments shows cancellation rates below 2% when matches are scheduled within seven days of the event window, though weather disruptions and player withdrawals do occur. The Perugia event, held annually on clay courts in central Italy, has maintained consistent scheduling since its ATP Challenger designation. Comparable markets on similar-tier fixtures have resolved to 50-50 only when external factors—injury announcements, weather alerts, or schedule compression—emerged within 48 hours of play.

Traders should monitor ATP injury reports and weather forecasts for the Umbria region from 4 June onwards. Pellegrino's recent match history and ranking movement will indicate fitness status; any late withdrawal typically surfaces through official ATP communications or tournament draw amendments. Conditional order logic should account for the seven-day delay clause, which extends the settlement window beyond the original match date and creates arbitrage opportunities if either player's status becomes uncertain between 6 and 13 June.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.