Next Claude Opus released on 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Anthropic’s next **Claude Opus** release is the event that resolves this market: a new model carrying the Opus name must be made publicly available before 31 July 2026, not merely announced or previewed. The current 0% crowd price implies the market is treating an additional Opus launch inside the settlement window as effectively impossible, which is a strong statement given how often Anthropic has refreshed the line in 2026 already.[2][6]

The recent cadence is the main historical frame. Anthropic has already shipped Opus 4.6, 4.7 and 4.8 this year, with 4.8 going live on 28 May and described as available everywhere on launch day, including the Claude platform and major cloud partners.[6][12] That pattern matters for programmatic traders: if you are automating around this market, the cleanest trigger is not model chatter but official product pages, newsroom posts, and API model identifiers that explicitly include “Opus”. The launch dates on Anthropic’s own Opus pages show how quickly a release can move from page update to general availability.[2][3]

For catalysts, watch Anthropic’s news feed, the Claude Opus product page, and any release notes that mention a new Opus version string, because a qualifying model must be public and accessible to count.[2][3][6] A trader using bots or conditional orders would typically wire alerts to those official surfaces rather than third-party rumours, since Sonnet, Haiku or other names do not qualify under the market rules. If Anthropic skips an Opus launch and pushes only other families, the market should remain unresolved until the window closes.[2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.