Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Phoenix Mercury face the Dallas Wings on 11 June at 9:00 PM ET in a regular-season WNBA matchup. Settlement occurs at 01:00 UTC on 12 June, with the final score—including any overtime—determining the outcome. A 50-50 split applies only if the fixture is cancelled without rescheduling; postponement keeps the market open until completion.

The 0% implied probability for Phoenix warrants scrutiny against recent form and head-to-head records. Dallas has historically held a competitive edge in this fixture, though Mercury's roster depth and playoff experience often translate to stronger performance in June fixtures when teams are still calibrating rotations. Comparable WNBA markets from prior seasons show that early-season games frequently settle against pre-game consensus when key players manage workload or injury precautions. Traders building conditional logic should flag whether either team has announced load management protocols ahead of this fixture.

Programmatic approaches should monitor official WNBA injury reports and team announcements through 11 June, particularly regarding Diana Taurasi's availability for Phoenix and Arike Ogunbowale's status for Dallas. Recent scheduling changes in the 2024 WNBA season have occasionally shifted game times; verification through the league's official calendar remains essential for order execution. Traders using bot-based settlement monitoring should account for potential overtime, which affects both final score and settlement timing. The current probability distribution suggests material uncertainty exists despite the extreme current reading.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.