Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| FC Bayern München (-1.5) | 89% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 69% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 55% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 54% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-4.5) | 50% |
| FC Bayern München (-4.5) | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-5.5) | 50% |
| FC Bayern München (-5.5) | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 46% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 2.5 | 40% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 38% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 4.5 | 30% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 5.5 | 30% |
| FC Bayern München (-2.5) | 29% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 1.5 | 25% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 2.5 | 24% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 3.5 | 24% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 4.5 | 24% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica O/U 5.5 | 24% |
| O/U 3.5 | 17% |
| Both Teams to Score | 17% |
| O/U 4.5 | 9% |
| FC Bayern München O/U 3.5 | 8% |
| FC Bayern München 2nd Half O/U 3.5 | 7% |
| FC Bayern München (-3.5) | 5% |
| O/U 5.5 | 2% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-1.5) | 1% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-2.5) | 1% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica (-3.5) | 1% |
| O/U 6.5 | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| O/U 8.5 | 1% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Sport Lisboa e Benfica 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| FC Bayern München 1st Half O/U 3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, sport lisboa e benfica vs. fc bayern münchen - more markets stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the UEFA Women's Champions League game, scheduled for September 30 at 3:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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