Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma

Platform comparison

Market context

Parma and Roma will meet in a Serie A fixture on Sunday, 10 May 2026, with settlement tied to the match's completion by 16:00 UTC. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, a baseline expectation for domestic league fixtures in Italy's top division.

Historical precedent shows Serie A matches rarely fail to materialise once fixture lists are published. Cancellations or postponements typically stem from exceptional circumstances—extreme weather, security incidents, or cascading fixture congestion—rather than routine administrative issues. Roma's fixture density and Parma's recent return to Serie A stability suggest minimal disruption risk at this stage of the season. For programmatic traders, this market functions primarily as a settlement-timing instrument rather than an outcome-dependent position; conditional orders keyed to match-day weather alerts or official postponement announcements would be the primary automation strategy.

Traders monitoring this fixture should track official Serie A scheduling updates and any mid-season fixture congestion arising from European competition. Roma's involvement in European tournaments could theoretically trigger rescheduling, though Italian league authorities typically confirm final dates well in advance. Real-time feeds from Lega Serie A's official channels and stadium operational status reports would provide the earliest signals of disruption. The settlement window's precision—ending at 16:00 on match day—makes kick-off time confirmation critical for automated systems; any shift to evening fixtures would require order adjustments. Given the fixture's distance from the current date, systematic monitoring of injury lists and squad availability becomes relevant only in the final fortnight before play.

Methodology

This page reviews Parma Calcio 1913 vs. AS Roma across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Resolution source: This market settles from the official publication at https://www.legaseriea.it/. A proposer submits the result to the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon, the two-hour challenge window opens, and the smart contract pays out in USDC.

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.