SSC Napoli vs. Udinese Calcio

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Napoli will travel to the Stadio Friuli to face Udinese on 24 May 2026 in a Serie A fixture scheduled for the final day of the domestic season. The 100% implied probability reflects near-certainty that the match will occur as scheduled, a baseline expectation for any fixture in a professional league calendar absent extraordinary circumstances such as force majeure or administrative intervention.

Historical precedent suggests that end-of-season Serie A matches rarely fail to materialise. Over the past decade, fixture cancellations have been exceptionally rare and typically confined to security threats or severe weather events affecting multiple matches simultaneously. Napoli and Udinese have met consistently in league play, with their fixture record showing no pattern of postponements or abandonments. The settlement window closing at 13:00 UTC on match day allows for standard pre-match verification; conditional orders triggered on team-sheet announcements or official kick-off confirmations would capture any last-minute administrative changes, though the probability of such events remains marginal.

Traders monitoring this market programmatically should track official Serie A communications and both clubs' injury bulletins in the week preceding 24 May, particularly regarding squad availability that might theoretically affect fixture scheduling. Weather forecasts for the Friuli region warrant routine checking, though May conditions rarely warrant postponement in Italian football. API feeds from official Serie A sources and club channels provide the most reliable data points; arbitrage opportunities are unlikely given the high settlement probability, making this market primarily useful for portfolio hedging rather than directional positioning.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.